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Data Analysis
The Economics of a Buy-the-Business Model
The widespread assumption is that BTB payments deliver top-line value that translates into bottom-line gains. The FCPA Professor Top Ten allows that assumption to be tested.
The DatasetNine CasesThe Aggregate
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The Source
The foremost public ranking of FCPA settlements
Ten BTB schemes. Admitted facts. Legally committed figures. No editorial discretion.
Maintained by Professor Mike Koehler at fcpaprofessor.com – the oldest continuous FCPA information source in existence. The list is ordered by the value of the US settlement: an objective, externally determined criterion. It is updated on a rolling basis as new enforcement actions are concluded.
Every figure derives from DOJ and SEC case papers and settlement documents – admitted facts in legally binding federal resolutions.
The FCPA Professor Top Ten is not analysis or commentary. It is a record of what companies admitted, what investigators established, and what federal courts accepted.
The Cases
Ten BTB schemes – the financial dynamics BTB payments made against BTB gains secured.
BTB payments made against BTB gains secured – case by case.
Case
BTB Payments
Gains Secured
Net Position
Goldman Sachs (US, 2020)
$1,600.0 m
$600.0 m
–$1,000.0 m
Ericsson (SE, 2019)
$150.0 m
$458.4 m
+$308.4 m
MTS (RU, 2019)
$420.8 m
$40.0 m
–$380.8 m
Siemens (DE, 2008)
$1,400.0 m
$1,100.0 m
–$300.0 m
Alstom (FR, 2014)
$75.0 m
$296.0 m
+$221.0 m
KBR/Halliburton (US, 2009)
$183.0 m
$177.0 m
–$6.0 m
Teva Pharma (US, 2016)
Not disclosed
Not disclosed
n/a
Telia (SE, 2017)
$331.2 m
$457.0 m
+$125.8 m
Gunvor (CH, 2024)
$97.0 m
$287.1 m
+$190.1 m
Glencore (CH, 2022)
$100.0 m
$272.2 m
+$172.2 m
Totals (nine cases)
$4,357.0 m
$3,687.7 m
–$669.3 m
Source: FCPA Professor, Top Ten FCPA Settlements, fcpaprofessor.com, current to May 2026. Figures derived from DOJ/SEC case papers and settlement documents. All figures pre-sanction. Teva Pharma: BTB payments not available as a single agreed aggregate – excluded from totals and aggregate analysis.
These are the numbers both parties committed to under federal law. They are the basis on which the assumption can be tested.
The Aggregate
Nine BTB schemes. One composite picture.
Treated as a single body of BTB Model conduct, the dataset pays out more in BTB payments than it returns in gains.
Treating the nine disclosed cases as a single composite BTB scheme – a representation of the Buy-the-Business Model operating at scale, across multiple companies, sectors, and jurisdictions – produces a picture that the case-level data alone cannot reach.
Combined BTB Payments
$4,357 m
nine disclosed cases
Combined Gains Secured
$3,688 m
nine disclosed cases
Composite Net Position
–$669 m
pre-sanction loss
Composite BTB/Gain
118.1%
BTB payments as % of gains secured
Nine of the largest BTB schemes on record. Combined BTB payments: $4,357 m. Combined gains secured: $3,688 m. Net position: –$669 m.
The Findings
The harsh reality
Before a sanction is applied, the BTB Model does not deliver what it is widely assumed to promise.
Four of the nine BTB schemes produced a pre-sanction net loss – meaning total BTB payments exceeded the commercial gains those payments secured, before any enforcement action was taken.
Five BTB schemes produced a pre-sanction net gain. In four of those five – Ericsson, Alstom, Gunvor, and Glencore – the margin between BTB payments and gains secured was the product of a payment-to-gain ratio below 35%. In the fifth, Telia, the ratio was 72.5% – a gain, but a narrow one relative to the scale of BTB payments made.
Nine BTB schemes. More paid out in BTB payments than returned in gains – before a single sanction was applied.
The Opportunity
The BTB Model destroys value – and the executive who understands this has a competitive advantage.
The company that knows that BTB payments are not a winning proposition knows which contracts to avoid.
BTB payments – however they are recorded in the books of account – are, when reduced to their economic substance, either a Cost of Sales or an Overhead.
As a Cost of Sales, they are a cost directly attributable to securing a specific contract. They compress the gross margin on every contract they are paid to win.
As an Overhead, they are a recurring cost of operating in a market where the BTB Model is the prevailing practice. They compress the net margin across the business as a whole.
Either way, they reduce profitability – and they do so regardless of how they are characterised in the accounts.
Five BTB schemes produced a headline gain. What the BTB payments did to the margin and profitability of the underlying contracts is a different question entirely.
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